2.C.8. Calculation of the water necessary for Shale Gaz in the Canning Basin (included lower Fitzroy River) with the information of the last reports of 2015 :
The map used for calculations comes from the two most recent documents
1/ Source: Department of Mines and Petroleum and U.S Department of Energy 2013 (IEA)
2/ Natural Gas from Shale and Tight Rocks An overview of Western Australia’s regulatory framework February 2014
3/ Buru Energy Report Septembre 2015, 15th
4 / THIRTY-NINTH PARLIAMENT REPORT 42 : STANDING COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS IMPLICATIONS FOR WESTERN AUSTRALIA OF HYDRAULIC FRACTURIN FOR UNCONVENTIONAL GAS
Presented by Hon Simon O’Brien MLC (Chairman) November 2015
« WA potentially contains an estimated 280 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of shale and tight gas » (Source 1/ IEA)
« Of this, approximately 235 trillion cubic feet are in the Canning Basin (Kimberley and East Pilbara regions) and 45 trillion cubic feet are in the northern Perth basin (Midwest region).
To put this into perspective, each year Western Australia consumes around 0.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas for everyday requirements such as electricity, heating, transport, manufacturing and mineral processing. Assuming only 20% of the estimated resource in Western Australia can be extracted commercially, this would supply the State for approximately 100 years at the current rate of use. The diagram below shows the potential shale (and tight) gas resource locations in WA. » (source 2/ WA and following figure)
Comment and calculations:
If 280 tcf represent 100 years’ consumption in WA ( that is 2,8 tcf/year) then 235 tcf represent 84 years.
From the real example of Poland, it is possible to foresee
On the example of Poland, it is possible to provide
A / that only 14% of the resource announced by the IEA can be mobilized. But today it is acknowledged that the estimates have been greatly overvalued and even that the 14% is incorrect. As proof of this, the fact that all the American companies have abandoned their licences and gone home empty-handed.
B / mobilized as the resource it is possible to rise to the surface as about 10%. Indeed, the experience of 30 years of shale gas in the USA teaches that 90% of the gas remains in the basement, with maximum extraction time of the first year, decreasing dramatically the next two, and almost to zero after 8 years.
10% 32.9 tcf led to 3.29 tcf, or 1 year and 2 months, not 100 years.)
SO, KNOWING THAT THE EXPERTS AND THE INDUSTRIALISTS ALL DECLARE THAT, FINALLY, THEY CAN, AT BEST, GET ONLY 10% OF THE RESOURCE, THE OPTIMISTIC EQUATION BECOMES:
10% OF 235 TCF IS ONLY 23.25 TCF, SO A LITTLE MORE THAN 8 YEARS’ NATIONAL CONSUMPTION. NO MORE.
The following table shows that the potentially productive surface of exploitation is as follows:
| Longueur
(km) |
Largeur
(km) |
Surface (km2) | Surface (km2) | Surface (km2) | |
| Fitzroy Through | 544 | 120 | 64 986 | 109 886 | 255 455 |
| Gregory Sub Basin | 413 | 109 | 44 900 | ||
| Wallara Sub Basin | 239 | 109 | 25 995 | 145 569 | |
| Kidson Sub Basin | 500 | 239 | 119 575 |
The following figure shows that the potentially productive operating area is:
Considering that the potentially exploitable surface km2 255,455 represents just under half of the Canning Basin, exploitable quantities can still beings dropped by half, or 1.65 instead of 3.29 tcf tcf representing barely 7 months consumption WA.
This conclusion is well in the sense of Article David Cliff, RISC, entitled « Will a recent round of drilling and testing shale gas and new conventional oil concepts set the basin up for a sustained exploration and development effort? More Waxing and Waning Of the Canning Basin? » BY DAVID CLIFF, RISC, Sept.2015, HartEnergy.com September 2015 | OGIAustralia.com
« The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) has done its best to advertise the fact that it believes the Canning is the largest “shale” or unconventional gas play in Australia. It estimates that the basin contains 229 Tcf of prospective resources. Independent estimates put Laurel Formation contingent and prospective resources net to Buru at 47 Tcf of gas and more than 1 billion barrels of associated condensate, though the uncertainty range is large. »
« The 2015 evaluation program will involve larger fracture stimulation programs and extended flow tests to ascertain the long-term deliverability The Goldwyer Shale, which lies below the Laurel Formation, is also being pursued as a liquids-rich resource play Buru’s independent resource estimate puts a net 7.2 Tcf of gas and 4 billion barrels of oil in its acreage ».
To confirm this, a recent report by Buru Energy of September 10, 2015 (page 10) shows the following figures « Laurel Tight Gas Regional resource: • + 100 TCF in the BCGS and + 1Bn bbls oil (gross) – with 47 TCF gas net to Buru (** independent Estimates of prospective resources) « . This report indicates Buru Energy’s operating area of 45 000 km2, slightly less than half of Fitzroy through Gregory + Sub Basin (109,886 km2 in the table below -Dessus). In fact, Buru Energy is considering a low estimate of 12 tcf product, which is close to the estimate made in relation to the Netherlands (EIA overestimated figures about 7 times).
We see that these two articles confirm what is happening in Holland, and the corrected numbers that we propose. The Buru Energy’s figures will be even lower, as they occur on the assumption of 12 TCF fact that 10% of the resource -either 1.2 TCF, given the decline in production by 90% by the end of the first year for each year.
This rapid decline in production is compensated by a second fracturing and well up to 15-20 fracturing, with a record of 42 fractures in the Dakota. Each fracturing consumes 20 000m3 of water … or four Olympic swimming pools of 5000 m2 (in the case of the technique of multiple wells, these figures are to be multiplied by 10 minimum). A well on its life consumes 4 X 20 = 80 Olympic swimming pools fracturing.
Calculate the quantities of water and chemicals necessary for the operation
The main questions to ask for the exploitation of shale gas are as follows
- Is there not has alternatives to fossil resources?
- What is the impact on human health (air quality, water quality and land quality)?
- What is the maximum amount of water that can be extracted by respecting the environmental balance, especially in dry periods (billabongs, animal and plant life)
This requires to cross CSIRO studies on sustainable equilibrium (quantitative and qualitative studies) and industrial research surveys that are only quantitative. But this work is not done because the industrial approaches are not contrasted with environmental approaches (organization in « silo » of Australian authorities demonstrated by ISOCARP (IMPP 2012))
1 / calculations based on the US experience, demonstrated by numerous official studies (particularly by the EPA) with regard to water availability estimated without qualitative consideration.
These calculations are applied to the latest studies Buru Energy, State of WA, and 42 report for the 39th Australian Parliament.
2 / CSIRO studies carried out in particular by Richard Creswell (Northern Australian Sustainable Yield (Nasy), 2009, and Northern Australia Land and Water Science Review, full report 2009)
The results are as follows:
- The planned operating area is approximately 255,455 km2, or almost half of the Canning Basin (or nearly half of the surface of France)
- The amount of water required for the operation is 3400 GL / year (low case) and 10 218 GL / year (high scenario). It is respectively about a third of the annual streamflow of the Fitzroy River or the amount of water from Lake Argyle in low case and the annual flow of the Fitzroy River and the amount of water the Lake Argyle in the high case.
- The total life of the wells (approximately eight years and 16 fractures in average), these quantities respectively become almost 3 times and 18 times the annual flow Fitzroy river, or water of Lake
- The quantity of chemicals injected into the soil is 1% of these volumes, which is between 272 and 817 GL GL, or in m3 , 270 000 000 m3 and 800 000 000 m3
- These hundred million m3 of chemicals pollute 10 times to 10,000 times their
- The volume of the polluted water can reach the entire volume of the stored water (about 40 000 TL according Law 1990)
| Length (km) | Width (km) | Area (km2) | Area (km2) | Area (km2) | |
| Fitzroy Through | 544 | 120 | 64 986 | 109 886 | 255 455 |
| Gregory Sub Basin | 413 | 109 | 44 900 | ||
| Wallara Sub Basin | 239 | 109 | 25 995 | 145 569 | |
| Kidson Sub Basin | 500 | 239 | 119 575 |
NOTA: l’Etude CSIRO, Northern Australia Land and Water Science Review, Full Report, October 2009, directed by Richard Cresswall, Glenn Harrington, Malcolm Hodgen, Lingtao Li, explains following findings: 1/ (Chap.1 page 33) « The rapid decrease in flow typical of western Australian rivers provide for little opportunity for water take-off , following an event » 2/ (Chap.1 page 36) « Smaller groundwater developments (i.e. 10 to 100 GL/year) are feasible within the aquifers of the Canning Basin, and have been developed in the protozoic carbonate aquifers in the Darling Rural Area. The latter, however, have also reached their extraction limit and there is currently a moratorium on any further groundwater development ». |
| Conclusion : In the hypothesis of 100GL/year for a Sustainable ecological balance, this limit is exceeded 272 times |
| Finally, even if the volume of chemical is 1%, as these dangerous products pollute between 1,000 times 1 000 000 times their volume, the volume of contaminated water is 10 times to 10 000 times (depending on the product) the volume of water used.
Considering with Laws (1990) that the volume of water stored in the basement is 46 446 TL, the polluted water volume is near 6 times the stored water (272 486/46 446) -and exploitation is only on half the area of Canning Basin- |
| A calculation remain to be done to pollution from methane gas and volatile chemicals |
| Conclusion : In the hypothesis of 100GL/year for a Sustainable ecological balance, this limit is exceeded 817 times |
It is observed that the water requirement for the Shale Gas industry in one year is equivalent to the annual streamflow of the Fitzroy River, or the volume of Lake Argyle, and shale gas industry need the volume of Fitzroy River streamflow or the volume of Lac Argyle 8 times. |
| Finally, even if the volume of chemical is 1%, as these dangerous products pollute between 1,000 times 1 000 000 times their volume, the volume of contaminated water is 10 times to 10 000 times (depending on the product) the volume of water used.
Considering with Laws (1990) that the volume of water stored in the basement is 46 446 TL, the polluted water volume is near 18 times the stored water (272 486/46 446) -and exploitation is only on half the area of Canning Basin- |
| A calculation remain to be done to pollution from methane gas and volatile chemicals |
Measurement units Description (NASY 2009 p.IX)
ML Megalitres, 1,000,000 litres
GL Gigalitres, 1,000,000,000 litres
TL Teralitres, 1,000,000,000,000 litres
Cumecs Cubic metres per second; m3/sec; equivalent to 1,000 litres per second 1 Sydney Harbour ~500 GL
1 Lake Argyle 10,380 GL
annual streamflow over the Fitzroy (WA) region is estimated to be 10,002 GL (NASY p.62) The Fitzroy Barrage at Camballin currently provides 6 GL allocation (NASY p68)
Allocation limits of 50 GL/year have been determined for the Broome Sandstone (NASY p.87)
- As the migratory process of the polluted water and the gases is inevitable (in the very year of production, and for many years after the plugging of the wells) –see the 6 migratory processes described by the undisputed and official American EPA – this means widespread pollution of the Canning Basin. It is only a question of time, before the 90% of gas left in the widely fractured ground, and the 50% of injected water with the chemicals migrate up to the surface, polluting all the higher aquifers of fresh water.
- – The calculation of air pollution remains to be done; it is very great because of the cumulative releases of methane of both industrial and natural origin, which can exceed 100 to 1000 times the acceptable standards set by the US experience on extensive territories. The accidental emptying of a tank of methane to the north of Los Angeles has, since the end of October, 2015, caused the evacuation of several thousand families and the declaration of a state of emergency; the problem has still not been solved.
– The pollution of the water of the Canning Basin will affect the watershed of the Fitzroy River; so, the scientific studies to be carried out on the links between groundwater and surface water are essential, as highlighted by the CSIRO studies. And yet the Murray Darling Basin experience has shown clearly that an indiscriminate extraction of groundwater has resulted in a 90% loss of biodiversity, and the almost complete drying up of surface water in the dry season. Can we not learn from the experience of the Murray Darling Basin?
– Scientific studies must also be carried out on the toxicity of the chemicals, which can pollute 10 to 10 000 times the volume of water used for the exploitation. Not forgetting the heavy metals and radio-active elements contained in these deep rock formations (radon, in particular ) which will affect the whole chain of production/distribution, from the well to the housewife’s gas cooker.
The problems that will arise in the long run are not only the quantity of water available, but the quantity of water that can be used sustainably for different things and ultimately, knowing that this waste water is irreversibly lost because it is heavily polluted, the irresponsible wasting of this vital resource, which is being depleted by global warming, a depletion which they want to make even worse with these extractions. Why persist in looking for dangerous resources from the past when new, clean, renewable, sustainable energies exist?
ANNEXES : Comparison with available water resources NASY 2009 p.84 :NASY 2009 p.84 :
Nasy Page 87 :
« Groundwater quality is good, but the available hydrogeological data are limited and the analysis of likely yields is very preliminary. A substantial investigation program consisting of aerial geophysical survey, investigation drilling and pumping tests will need to be carried out to define the extent and properties of the aquifers prior to confirming a sustainable extraction yield.
Figure FI-15 shows the distribution of current groundwater extraction licences, totalling
20.63 GL/year. These licences range from small community water supplies (<10 ML/year) to larger mining supplies (~4000 ML/year). They include the public water supply for Fitzroy Crossing (250 ML/year; DERMD, 2004), Camballin (50 ML/year; WRD, 2006), Derby 1500 ML/year; WRC, 2001a), Broome (4200 ML/year; WRC, 2001b) and 2359 ML/year for the La Grange area. (Note that a further 3000 ML/year is licensed for extraction within the La Grange area outside of the Fitzroy (WA) region, DoW, 2008b). The majority of allocations are for taking water from the Canning Basin aquifers with few in the fractured rock aquifers in the north-east of the region and apparently none in the Fitzroy alluvial aquifer. Nevertheless, pumping from bores screened in aquifers below the Fitzroy alluvium (e.g. at Fitzroy Crossing) would likely have a direct influence on the water levels in the overlying alluvial aquifer ».
« There is an intricate interaction between surface and groundwater’s; river valleys are frequently flooded during the wet season and the region is groundwater-dependent in the dry. Pools are maintained into the dry season via shallow subsurface flow, with sand bars supporting the river ». (NASY, 2009, p.64)
(page 67) But with other levels of development, what happen ? (scientifique studies to be achieved)
(page 75)
Diagrammatic Fitzroy Trough cross-section (Source: RISC)